A trade deficit that flips into a surplus in a single year is worth a second look.

According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, U.S. goods trade with Türkiye totaled $36.8 billion in 2025. U.S. exports to Türkiye rose 31.6% to $20.4 billion, while U.S. imports from Türkiye slipped 1.7% to $16.4 billion. The result: the goods trade balance moved from a $1.2 billion deficit in 2024 to a $3.9 billion surplus in 2025.

That's not a rounding error. It suggests Turkish buyers are absorbing more U.S. machinery, fuels, metals and industrial inputs even as Türkiye's own exports to the U.S. plateau, likely a mix of tariff adjustments, a weaker lira making U.S. goods comparatively easier to finance against future export revenue, and Turkish manufacturers restocking capital equipment.

For a North American company this raises real questions, not just a headline:

Is your product category part of that export growth, or outside it?
Are Turkish buyers reaching out to you directly now, before you've built local pricing or distribution?
Does a stronger U.S. export position change what market entry actually costs you this year, versus last?

We'd rather see a company test the second question with real data than assume momentum will hold. What's harder right now: getting into the Turkish market, or pricing correctly once you're in?